The number, in context

The zero-launch figure comes from data provider Zonda Home Canada and was reported by Business in Vancouver on May 28, 2026.

It tracks concrete highrise projects — the tall towers typically built in town centres, near transit, and in prime locations.

Concrete is preferred by many end-users over woodframe for two reasons: less noise transfer between suites, and the views that come with elevation.

The disappearance of those launches in a single quarter is unusual enough that Ryan Wyse, market intelligence manager and lead analyst with Rennie & Associates Realty, told BIV: "From what I'm hearing, there aren't any coming anytime soon."

It's not just concrete. Townhomes — typically end-user product aimed at young families and downsizers — also saw launches drop. There were 334 townhome project launches in Q1 2026 versus 507 a year earlier, per Zonda.

For raw unit count, the picture is even starker. According to presale tracking firm MLA Canada, only 64 new presale homes across three projects hit the market across Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley in February 2026.

That's roughly six per cent of a typical February, when the region usually sees more than 1,100 units come online.

MLA's January 2026 count was 145 units across three projects — also a fraction of a normal month.

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Why developers hit the brakes

The mechanics of why this is happening are well understood inside the industry. They come down to a single constraint: construction financing.

Most lenders require that somewhere between 60 and 70 per cent of units be pre-sold before they'll release construction financing, Wyse told BIV. Hit that threshold, and the building gets built. Miss it, and the project simply doesn't pencil.

Developers are missing it right now. MLA's data shows overall Metro Vancouver presale absorption in 2025 ran at roughly 30 per cent — less than half the threshold most lenders need.

2025 produced only 60 project launches and fewer than 4,800 units released, making it one of the most constrained presale years in over a decade.

A few forces are pushing absorption down at the same time

▪ Investor pullback. Investors were a meaningful share of the presale buyer pool, and they're largely gone.

Higher interest rates, federal restrictions on what owners can do with their homes, falling rents, and a stock market that's performed well have all redirected capital elsewhere. "They're taking a break," Polygon Homes president Neil Chrystal said of investors in an interview with The Realist (Howard Chai's Substack).

▪ Standing inventory. At the end of Q1 2026, there were roughly 3,945 completed and unsold condos sitting across Metro Vancouver, per Wyse. That overhang has to clear before new launches become viable — buyers won't write presale contracts on tomorrow's tower when today's concrete unit is sitting discounted on MLS.

▪ Consumer uncertainty. "They don't know what to do," Anthem Properties founder and CEO Eric Carlson told The Realist. "They're confused about the economy.

They're confused about what's going on in the housing market.

Nobody wants to pay $1,200 per sq. ft. when it's going to be finished and be worth $1,000." That quote captures the hesitation keeping absorption low even as prices have already corrected.

▪ Construction cost stickiness. Land, concrete, labour, financing, and municipal fees haven't fallen in step with the price correction. Cam Good, owner of KEY Marketing Inc., told BIV developers are "working with their contractors and consultants to get their costs down in order to launch at prices that will be successful" — but that process takes time.

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The other side: why some are calling a bottom

The same developers and marketers who describe a difficult market are also pointing to specific reasons to expect 2026 to be better than 2025 — and for 2027 and 2028 to be materially different again.

A few of the structural supports

▪ Government incentives, landed. The federal GST rebate of $50,000 for first-time buyers on new construction is the largest direct subsidy in a generation, and it's in market.

Chrystal: "That is an excellent incentive." Combined with the First Home Savings Account, 30-year amortizations on insured mortgages for new builds, and provincial adjustments, the affordability math for first-time buyers has genuinely improved.

▪ Rates are stable, not spiking. A sub-4 per cent five-year fixed is, historically, a good rate.

The Bank of Canada's December 2025 hold signalled to many in the industry that the floor is in.

Deren Akinci, VP of marketing and strategy at Ace Project Marketing Group, told The Realist he reads that hold as evidence "we've reached the bottom and that things are stabilizing."

▪ End users are still buying. Even in 2025, sales driven by real housing need — first-time buyers, move-up families, downsizers — cleared.

Townhomes, especially. "Housing sales that are driven by a real need like that, they can still work, even in this market," KEY Marketing's Cam Good told BIV.

The investor vacuum has forced the industry to refocus on the end user, which is structurally healthier.

▪ Population growth hasn't stopped. Federal immigration targets for 2026 are 385,000 and 370,000 for 2027 and 2028 — down from the 500,000 peak, but still meaningful. As Carlson put it: "If people are arriving or we're getting any kind of population growth, then that can get absorbed very quickly."

▪ Prices have corrected. Vancouver-area presale benchmark prices are down 6.8 per cent year-over-year per MLA Canada. That's a real number buyers can negotiate around.

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What the next several months likely look like

Pulling the threads together, here's a realistic read of the next three to nine months in the B.C. condo presale market.

Through summer 2026

the freeze continues. Standing inventory keeps clearing slowly.

Few — if any — new concrete towers launch. Townhome activity ticks up modestly in suburban markets.

Developers lean on aggressive incentives, price reductions, and finished-home sales to keep revenue moving. The buyers in market are end users with a real reason to move, not investors.

Fall 2026 to early 2027

if the Bank of Canada resumes cuts and one or two marquee projects in Vancouver or Burnaby successfully launch with healthy absorption (above 50 per cent, ideally trending toward the 60-70 per cent threshold), confidence rebuilds. "There will be some corrections and distressed sales here and there in 2026 that will mitigate by the end of the year and 2027," Carlson said.

2027 and 2028

the supply side catches up with a vengeance.

The projects that weren't launched in 2024-2026 still need to be built eventually — Metro Vancouver is short hundreds of thousands of homes by every credible measure.

If launches remain suppressed for two more years, a genuine supply shortage returns, and the price dynamic flips.

Carlson: "In the years 2028 and 2029, there will be a very significant shortage, but in the meantime we have to be creative."

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The buyer takeaway

If you're an end-user buyer — a first-time purchaser, a family needing more space, a downsizer — the next 12 months are arguably the strongest buyer market Metro Vancouver has seen in a decade. There's selection, there's negotiation, there are real incentives, and the federal government is directly subsidizing first-time new-construction purchases in a way it hasn't before.

If you're a developer or investor, the message is different.

Capital is more expensive, presale thresholds are harder to clear, and the playbook that worked 2018-2022 doesn't work now.

The survivors will be the ones who price to clear, structure for end users, and have patient capital.

The ones who try to "throw projects against the wall to see what sticks," as KEY Marketing's Cam Good put it, will continue to lose.

If you're a broker, the next 18 months reward specialization. Inventory is unusual, financing math is changing, and the playbook that worked in a seller's market is exactly backwards now.

Helping clients read absorption data, government incentive stacking, and standing-inventory vs. presale pricing is the work.

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What's verified, and what's commentary

The hard data points in this article — zero concrete launches in Q1 2026 versus 152 a year earlier, 64 units launched in February 2026, 3,945 completed and unsold condos, ~30 per cent absorption in 2025, benchmark prices down 6.8 per cent year-over-year — are sourced to Zonda Home Canada, MLA Canada, and Rennie & Associates Realty, as reported by Business in Vancouver, Daily Hive Vancouver, and The Realist / Howard Chai.

The forward-looking framing — soft 2026, less soft 2027, shortage-driven 2028 — is industry commentary, primarily from Eric Carlson (Anthem Properties), Neil Chrystal (Polygon Homes), Deren Akinci (Ace Project Marketing Group), Cam Good (KEY Marketing), and Ryan Wyse (Rennie). All have skin in the game. None have a crystal ball.

What they do agree on is this: the worst is probably behind us. "It can only improve from where it's at," Carlson said. "I think we've made it as bad as we can make it. When you're lying on the floor, there's only one way to go: up.

It'll still feel like shit for a year, but it's much more clear to see the upside from here."

That's not a sales pitch. That's a sober industry read from one of the most experienced developers in the region.

And the data backs it up.

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Sources: Business in Vancouver (May 28, 2026), Daily Hive Vancouver (April 2, 2026), MLA Canada monthly presale reports, Zonda Home Canada, Rennie & Associates Realty Q1 2026 market update, The Realist / Howard Chai Substack (Jan 29, 2026) with Eric Carlson (Anthem), Neil Chrystal (Polygon), Deren Akinci (Ace Project Marketing).